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Scenario based technique applied to photovoltaic sources uncertainty

Credit to Download: 1 | Page Numbers 12 | Abstract Views: 52
Year: 2019
COI code: JR_EES-7-3_007
Paper Language: English

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Authors Scenario based technique applied to photovoltaic sources uncertainty

  Kamran Masoudi - Electrical Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran
  Hamdi Abdi - Electrical Engineering Department, Engineering Faculty, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran


There is an increasing need to forecast power generated by photovoltaic sources in day-ahead power system operation. The electrical energy generated by these renewable sources is an uncertain variable and depends on solar irradiance, which is out of control and depends on climate conditions. The stochastic programming based on various scenarios is an efficient way to deal with such uncertainties. In this research paper, the long term hourly recorded irradiance data in 15 past years are applied to generate the next day s irradiance scenarios. Irradiance determines the operating point of PV panel as well as the generated electrical power. Also, the scenario generation method based on autoregressive and moving average time series is proposed. For decreasing the number of scenarios, backward reduction based on Kantorovich distance is applied. The obtained results confirm the accuracy and ability of the proposed method in forecasting the relevant data. ling ideal wind turbines, ideal rotating devices or ideal wind farms either numerically or experimentally and gives the maximum possible power extractions; thus, any improvement to the performance of a system can be made by this method.


Photovoltaic, Uncertainty, Stochastic, scenario, ARMA

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COI code: JR_EES-7-3_007

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Masoudi, Kamran & Hamdi Abdi, 2019, Scenario based technique applied to photovoltaic sources uncertainty, Energy Equipment and Systems 7 (3), the text, wherever referred to or an achievement of this article is mentioned, after mentioning the article, inside the parental, the following specifications are written.
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The University/Research Center Information:
Type: state university
Paper No.: 7854
in University Ranking and Scientometrics the Iranian universities and research centers are evaluated based on scientific papers.

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