Modeling the special distribution and climatic suitability of Rhombomys opimus as the main reservoir host of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in northeastern of Iran

Background: Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis is one of the endemic diseases in Golestan Province and Leishmania major is known as the agent and Rhombomys opimus as the main reservoir host of this disease.Objectives: The aims of this study was to check out the presence probability of this species in different parts of the province and Modeling the special distribution and climatic suitability of Rhombomys opimus as the main reservoir host of Zoonotic Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in northeastern of Iran using Maxent model.Materials and Methods: Firstly, we found the presence parts of Rh. opimus in Golestan Province. To do so, we considered the villages as the presence points of this rodent, from where it had been captured in the previous studies. Also, we began to capture the wild rodents and determined their species using the morphological characteristics. The environmental layers discussing in the study consisted of Altitude, vegetation cover, type of soil, Slope, Aspect and climatic variables. To find the critical areas of disease, we considered every villages of Golestan Province which had been reported at least three positive cases of the disease during 1394 as the presence points of L. major and drew its plan of distribution in GIS and combined maps of distribution of both species.Results: The presence probability of both species of Rh. opimus and L. major was determined in the different parts of Golestan Province using Maxent model. The AUC for Rh. opimus and L. major was 0.92 and 0.89, respectively. The presence probability of both species L. major and Rh. opimus in the northeast of Golestan Province was found to be more than other parts of the province. The jackknife test indicated that the factors like Max temperature of warmest month, mean temperature of warmest quarter, altitude and mean temperature of driest quarter. For Rh. opimus these variables were mean temperature of driest quarter, mean temperature of warmest quarter, max temperature of warmest month and altitude.Conclusion: Using these models, we recognized the areas which have more presence probability for reservoirs of ZCL. These finding can be used to prevent and control the disease properly.

Keywords:

Cutaneous leishmaniasis , Ecological Niche modeling , Rh. opimus , L. major , Northeast of Iran