Using Probabilistic Methods to Evaluate Landfire Hazard

A forest fire is regarded as a disaster that destroys natural and human resources. Usually first reason of forest fires are lightning, moreover it can be happened byhuman carelessness or torching activities. Anthropogenic factors such as distance from roads, paths and vicinity to settlements become more highlighted in someareas as well as physiographic factors such as elevation, slope and aspect. There are large firefighter services including airplanes, fire trucks, and extinguishers to prevent ignitions when a fire is happened. But before ignition, fire hazard management is the most important step to analyze which area has a high fire potential. Landfire is a hazard in the Northeast of Iran. This is the most important forest area and one of the valuable temperate rain forests around the world. In this study we test the hypothesis that fire occurrences are associated with distance fromroads and settlements, slope, aspect and elevation. In order to assessment of fire hazard in this case, the hot spots MODIS data set from 2001 to 2010, roads,settlements, slope, aspect and elevation data were acquired. Landfire hazard is evaluated through probabilistic approaches using probability distribution functions (PDFs). Five probability distribution functions (PDFs) are distinguished to explain the role of physiographic and anthropogenic factors in fire hazard.

Keywords:

Landfire Hazard Assessment , Probabilistic Method , Golestan Province