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title

Review of Probabilistic forecasting approach in Futures Studies

Credit to Download: 1 | Page Numbers 12 | Abstract Views: 50
Year: 2019
COI code: FRMSD01_110
Paper Language: English

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Authors Review of Probabilistic forecasting approach in Futures Studies

  Esmail Amiri - Department of Statistics Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.

Abstract:

The traditional forecasting and analysis techniques turned out to be inadequate for futures studies. Therefore, for forecasting and analysis new combined qualitative and quantitative techniques are developed. In futures studies, probabilistic forecasting approach is developed and advocated by futurists. Probabilistic forecasting approach includes two main combined techniques, namely trend impact analysis and cross impact analysis. There are two major methodologies for cross impact analysis, one is Interactive Cross Impact Simulation (INTERAX ) and the other is Interactive future Simulations (IFS). We review these probabilistic forecasting methodologies and present advantage and disadvantage of each method. Finally, in practical examples we show how to apply the introduced probabilistic forecasting tools.

Keywords:

probabilistic, forecasting, trend impact, cross impact, INTERAX, simulation, IFS.

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COI code: FRMSD01_110

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Amiri, Esmail, 2019, Review of Probabilistic forecasting approach in Futures Studies, National Conference on Future Research, Management and Sustainable Development, تهران, دبيرخانه دائمي كنفرانس, https://www.civilica.com/Paper-FRMSD01-FRMSD01_110.htmlInside the text, wherever referred to or an achievement of this article is mentioned, after mentioning the article, inside the parental, the following specifications are written.
First Time: (Amiri, Esmail, 2019)
Second and more: (Amiri, 2019)
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Scientometrics

The University/Research Center Information:
Type: state university
Paper No.: 5090
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