Forecasting Annual Extreme Flows Rate of Karkheh River using Stochastic Models

Publish Year: 1396
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: English
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GERMANCONF01_057

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 26 مرداد 1397

Abstract:

Limited available water resources, increased demand and water sources pollution inrecent decades have increased the need for water resources management. In thisregard, prediction and modeling of hydrologic systems are considered as importantmanagement tools to predict the future values of these systems. Stochastic methodscan be mentioned as such models. In this study, we forecasted the annual extreme flowrate values such as annual peak and maximum discharge of Karkheh River inKhuzestan province using stochastic modeling. The models presented in this studyincluded AR, MA, ARMA and ARIMA for modeling annual extreme flow rate data.The ARIMA(4,1,1) model satisfied all tests and showed the best performance for thisseries. The model forecasted streamflow for ten leading years showed the ability of themodel to forecast statistical properties of the streamflow in short time in future. TheSAS 9.2 and SPSS 20 softwares were used to implement all of the above models.

Authors

Karim Hamidi Machekposhti

Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Hossein Sedghi

Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran

Abdolrasoul Telvari

Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran

Hossein Babazadeh

Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran