Predicting Crude Oil Production AndDemand By Using Grey Model(1,1)

The grey theory can be applied in the research of prediction, decision-making and control, especially in prediction. The primary characteristic of a grey system is the incompleteness of information. A grey system could be whitened by way of inserting more messages in itself and its accurac of prediction could be raised. Grey Model (1, 1)( short for GM(1, 1)) was applied to forecast the future value of crude oil production and demand daily in per year in this paper. GM (1, 1) was established according to the time-series. Base on MATLAB software, the forecast value of crude oil production and demand was given. The objective in this study is two field. The first is to forecast the crude oil production and demand in world by use the grey model(1,1). The second is to compare the forecasting results of the GM(1,1).

Keywords:

grey model(1 , 1) , crude oil production , crude oil demand , forecasting