Economic Impacts of Agricultural Drought in Tarom-e Olia County, Iran: Pathways for Management

Drought is associated with a host of complex and interwoven detrimental effects which not only affect socio-economic activities in one region but also exert influence on surrounding areas. Knowledge about the effects of this natural hazard helps reduce risks long before the phenomenon actually takes place particularly when making necessary decisions. This paper focuses on the economic consequences of drought for agriculture sector and relevant management strategies in Tarom-e Olia County, Zanjan Province, Iran. This survey takes a descriptive-correlational approach and its statistical population consists of all farmers residing in Tarom-e Olia County (N=18000). Using Cochran’s formula and stratified sampling method 573farmers were selected. The research instrument was a questionnaire. A panel of faculty members and experts confirmed the validity of the questionnaire. To test the reliability of scales, Alpha Cronbach’s coefficient was used which proved to be acceptable (00902).Descriptive statistics were used to determine frequencies. Also, factor analysis was applied to summarize mechanisms in smaller number of factors. Results of the ranking of the economic effects of drought revealed that increase in demand for loan and lower purchasing power and scarcity of irrigation water are at the top of the list. 82 economic effects of drought were extracted in 2 factors. Also, results of multiple regression analysis revealed that %74 of the variance is explained by 3 variables including environmental vulnerability , size of mechanized orchards , use of under pressure irrigation system , participation in agricultural training programs , and agricultural insurance .

Keywords:

Drought , Economic Effects , Farmers , Agricultural Drought , Drought Management , Tarom-e Olia County