Explanation of differences between vulnerability and risk concepts in coastal hazards research (with special focus on future sea level rise)

Generally, vulnerability describes qualities of location, structural condition, past incidence of events, and the like that render an entire coast, individual communities, or even particular coastal structures likely to suffer damage and loss and associated socioeconomic impacts. But they are not the events that cause disaster (like coastal storms, exceptionally high tides). Sea level rise is a phenomenon especially subject to much confusion about vulnerability and risk. A general prediction of future sea level rise is often treated as risk factors. Apart from uncertainties in the climate and ocean models that form the basis for such predictions, forecasted rates of sea level rise really only set conditions for events like coastal storms comprising the actual hazard. However, if high resolution data are available to constrain hazardous, short term increases in sea level in time and space for a reach of coast, then some probabilistic determinations may be made of yearly, seasonal, or monthly risk. Most coasts in the developed world have data available which are capable of resolving exceptional sea level high stands to hourly levels of temporal resolution and, equally critically, location. It is increasingly evident that the variability in climate and sea level has displayed a sharp upswing since the middle 0691s. This recent phase, possibly heralding a major global climate shift, is the period from which risk assessments of hazards from sea level high stands should be based. The results of this research can make a substantial contribution to more accurate understanding of the risks resulted from sea level rise and do more accurate vulnerability and risk assessment of coastal areas.

Keywords:

coastal hazards , vulnerability , risk , sea level rise