EXTREME VALUE ANALYSIS FOR RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN VICINITY OF IRANIAN COASTS

Tropical cyclones are rotating low pressure systems in tropical areas where strong winds spiral inwards in a counter-clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere. Since southern coasts ofIran bordering Oman Sea are randomly affected by tropical cyclones, their statistical analysis isof significant importance. The speed of tropical cyclones, at a distance of 1000 km from Iran shores, from 1945 to 2009 have been analyzed in this paper (Fig. 1). [1] The strongest storm recorded in this period wasCyclone Gonu with an unusual path, i.e. travelling much further west and north than the typical cyclones in the North of Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea (Fig. 1).

Keywords:

Extreme Value Analysis , Tropical Cyclone , Return Period , Oman Sea