ASSESSMENT of CMIP5 WIND FIELD in the PERSIAN GULF

Climate research and observations of global climatic conditions have shown that many future climate conditions will differ from historical and current trends [1]. Excessive usage of fossil fuels has increased the concentration of greenhouse gases which cause the global temperature rise. This phenomenon has resulted in change in ocean circulation, sea ice and glacial melt, species extinction, sea level rise and changing weather patterns etc., which can also in turn lead to fundamental effects in the coastal conditions, such as change in the rate of erosion and sedimentation, etc. The effects of climate change will impose a number of challenges to people who live along the coasts. At these areas, people life is related to sea and beach. Hence, they need to protect the coastal area in order to protect the beaches [1]. Projections of future climate changes are based on the application of emissions scenarios or representative concentration pathways (RCPs) obtaining from the Global Climate Models (GCMs) that have been developed based on assumptions of different kinds of future human behavior. The future climate can be forecasted and the past climate can be hindcasted to some extent using these models [2]. Some studies assessed different global circulation models in different areas such as northern Eurasia and Australia [3, 4]. Assessment of climate change impact in the Persian Gulf is important. In the Persian Gulf, a study has been done to evaluate the climate change based on the previous scenarios [5]. However, considering the development of RCPs, no studies have been conducted in the Persian Gulf in order to investigate the new dataset. This paper assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating wind field over the Persian Gulf for the period of 1980 to 2005, by comparing it to a local reliable wind field (ECMWF).