A Simulation Method Combined with Probability Theory for Estimating GERT Project Networks Time Characteristics

This paper proposes a new method to estimate network characteristics such as mean and variance of network realization time. Projects such as New Product Development and Plant Construction have lots of uncertainty about the job order and job execution time. We can model these projects as Stochastic Networks such as GERT Networks. Since Stochastic Networks have a variable time and a branching probability for each arrow, the total duration of the network is variable too. In most cases, only simulation method can analyze the network’s characteristics. However, the method is extremely time-consuming. Therefore, we propose a new method for the planning time and branching probabilities of arrows by using one set of Monte-Carlo simulation result combined with a Probability Theory.

Keywords:

Project Management , Monte-Carlo Simulation , Stochastic GERT Networks , Sensitivity Analysis