Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using Failure Mode and Effect Analysis Approach and D-S evidence theory: application to City Gate Station

Industrial plants are subjected to very dangerous events. In order to evaluate the probability of occurrence,Risk Analysis is employed. In classical applications, Risk Analysis treats event probabilities as certain data.Anyway, such a kind of certainty, does not rely on an adequate knowledge of the stochastic processes that lead to the component’s failure. Then, in order to achieve a better fitting with real systems, uncertainty due to the unavailability of data and information needs to be considered. Failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is one of the risk analysis method that has been widely used in industries to identify and eliminate known or potential failures from the process of product design to production. To solve the problems existed in the traditional method, we propose composed method consist of Dempster Shafer Theory and FMEA to provide a more efficient failure mode prioritization. the proposed method can well capture team member’s diversity opinions and prioritize failure modes under different types of uncertainties. to show the practical application of the proposed methodology, the methodology is applied to City Gate Station of Yazd Province. The results showed that this method is reasonable and effective for real applications.

Keywords:

Risk Analysis , Uncertainty , D-S evidence theory , City Gate Station , Yazd Province