AN ESTIMATION OF DRUG-RELATED DEATHS IN IRAN USING THE CAPTURE-RECAPTURE METHOD

Background and Aim : There are two different death registration systems in Iran. Drug-related death is specifically registered by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the Legal Medicine Organization (LMO). The present study attempts to assess the number of drug-induced deaths and examines death undercount and the overlap between these two sources of data. Methods : According to the book ‘ICD-10’, registered data related to drug-related death in the years 2014-2016 including such characteristics of the deceased as name, family name, national code, age, gender, province of living, province of death, month of death, and type of drug poisoning leading to death, as recorded by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education and the LMO, were collected and the number of deaths was estimated using two sources capture-recapture method and the Excel softwareResults : The total number of deaths caused by drug use, as registered by the two mentioned sources, was 8639 during the three years. A major portion of the data related to registration of drug- induced death (6484 deaths accounting for 75% of the data) belonged to the LMO and only 2155 deaths were registered by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education during the three years. There was a small overlap (665 people accounting for 7.7% of deaths) between the data from the two sources. The final estimation from the capture-recapture model in general and analysis of sensitivity showed that during the three years the total number of deaths due to drug use in the country is 14517 (at a confidence interval of 95% )14498-14558.1)). Based on the complete overlap assumption and 50% of unidentified individuals in the two sources, the number of deaths was estimated to be 11341 and 12418, respectively. The largest number of drug-related deaths happened in the age range of 25-39 and in the males. Kermanshah, Hamedan and Zanjan provinces had the largest number of cumulative incidences of death caused by drug use in Iran. In the data of the Ministry of Health and Medical Education, the most common cause of death was found to be the side effects produced by MethadoneConclusion : it is necessary share information between the centers responsible for registering fatal poisoning death by the related authorities.

Keywords:

drug-related death , capture-recapture method , Iran