Climate and Conflict:Using Agent-based Modelling to Study Securityunder Resource Scarcity

The relationship between climate change and conflict is not yet clear as empirical evidence provides mixedconclusions about their associations. Some authors believe that climate change will exacerbate conflict viachannels such as scarcity of vital resources like water or mass migration of people. Other researchers haveanalysed modern and historical data and case studies to argue that so far there has not been any significantevidence of conflicts arising from climatic impacts. In this paper, we use an agent-based computationalmodel to simulate an environment based on the theory of production and conflict where agents can allocatetheir resources to production, predation (appropriation) and protection. Strategy selection is adaptive asagents can learn from their previous experience and optimize their behaviour through a genetic framework.Socio-economic sustainability is measured using a range of indicators including perception of localinsecurity, population growth, changing carrying capacity and resource allocation patterns. The results showthat in environments with a proportion of the population prone to predatory behaviour, climate changeswhich reduce resource productivity and availability and ecological carrying capacity can intensify thedrivers of predation, exacerbating conflict and leading to protracted insecurity and un-sustainability

Keywords:

Climate Change , Security , Agent-based Models , Conflict , Genetic Algorithm