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Probabilistic Forecasting of Cost Baseline Using the Beta Distribution

Credit to Download: 1 | Page Numbers 9 | Abstract Views: 1911
Year: 2010
COI code: NCEC01_156
Paper Language: English

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Authors Probabilistic Forecasting of Cost Baseline Using the Beta Distribution

  Milad Eghtedari - Graduate student, School of Civil Engineering, university of Tehran, Tehran
  Gholamreza Heravi - Assistant Professor, School of Civil Engineering, university of Tehran, Tehran


In this paper, on the basis of the past project cost and time performance, an exhaustive model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. In this model Earn Value Method (EVM) and Monte-Carlo simulation, which are two important techniques for calculating the actual progress and forecasting cost performance of projects are used. Likewise in this model for developing the project stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), project cost uncertainties are considered through the Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs, which are extracted from the previous projects information, real conditions, and expert judgment


stochastic S-Curve, Monte Carlo method, Simulation, Cost control, Forecasting, Performance evaluation, Beta Distribution

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COI code: NCEC01_156

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Eghtedari, Milad & Gholamreza Heravi, 2010, Probabilistic Forecasting of Cost Baseline Using the Beta Distribution, National Civil Engineering Conference, نجف آباد, دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي واحد نجف آباد, the text, wherever referred to or an achievement of this article is mentioned, after mentioning the article, inside the parental, the following specifications are written.
First Time: (Eghtedari, Milad & Gholamreza Heravi, 2010)
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The University/Research Center Information:
Type: state university
Paper No.: 53466
in University Ranking and Scientometrics the Iranian universities and research centers are evaluated based on scientific papers.

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