CIVILICA We Respect the Science
Publisher of Iranian Journals and Conference Proceedings
Paper
title

Probabilistic Forecasting of Cost Baseline Using the Beta Distribution

Credit to Download: 1 | Page Numbers 9 | Abstract Views: 1911
Year: 2010
COI code: NCEC01_156
Paper Language: English

How to Download This Paper

For Downloading the Fulltext of CIVILICA papers please visit the orginal Persian Section of website.

Authors Probabilistic Forecasting of Cost Baseline Using the Beta Distribution

  Milad Eghtedari - Graduate student, School of Civil Engineering, university of Tehran, Tehran
  Gholamreza Heravi - Assistant Professor, School of Civil Engineering, university of Tehran, Tehran

Abstract:

In this paper, on the basis of the past project cost and time performance, an exhaustive model for forecasting project cost performance is developed. In this model Earn Value Method (EVM) and Monte-Carlo simulation, which are two important techniques for calculating the actual progress and forecasting cost performance of projects are used. Likewise in this model for developing the project stochastic S-Curve (SS-Curve), project cost uncertainties are considered through the Beta distribution functions of the project activities costs, which are extracted from the previous projects information, real conditions, and expert judgment

Keywords:

stochastic S-Curve, Monte Carlo method, Simulation, Cost control, Forecasting, Performance evaluation, Beta Distribution

Perma Link

https://www.civilica.com/Paper-NCEC01-NCEC01_156.html
COI code: NCEC01_156

how to cite to this paper:

If you want to refer to this article in your research, you can easily use the following in the resources and references section:
Eghtedari, Milad & Gholamreza Heravi, 2010, Probabilistic Forecasting of Cost Baseline Using the Beta Distribution, National Civil Engineering Conference, نجف آباد, دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي واحد نجف آباد, https://www.civilica.com/Paper-NCEC01-NCEC01_156.htmlInside the text, wherever referred to or an achievement of this article is mentioned, after mentioning the article, inside the parental, the following specifications are written.
First Time: (Eghtedari, Milad & Gholamreza Heravi, 2010)
Second and more: (Eghtedari & Heravi, 2010)
For a complete overview of how to citation please review the following CIVILICA Guide (Citation)

Scientometrics

The University/Research Center Information:
Type: state university
Paper No.: 53466
in University Ranking and Scientometrics the Iranian universities and research centers are evaluated based on scientific papers.

Research Info Management

Export Citation info of this paper to research management softwares

New Related Papers

Iran Scientific Advertisment Netword

Share this paper

WHAT IS COI?

COI is a national code dedicated to all Iranian Conference and Journal Papers. the COI of each paper can be verified online.