Uncertainty analysis associates with reservoir management-A case study from an Iranian Carbonate Reservoir

Role of risk and uncertanty in reservoir management is significant . Both risk and uncertainty are caused by lack of precise knowledge regarding future business conditions , technological development and so on and both can cause study results to vary from predictions. but decision under risk is dealing with the decision problem in term of assumed possible future outcomes or scenarios with estimate -able probability of occurrence , however , decision under uncertainty is dealing with the decision problem in term of assumed possible future outcomes or scenarios with non-estimate -able probability of occurrence. in reservoir management one is facing with two group of uncertainly parameters; first the reservoir parameters and second the economic parameters. in this paper main area of reservoir uncertainty and key uncertainty factors are introduced and role of these parameters in reservoir management are discussed.