MAGNITUDE SIMULATION USING THE GENERALIZED PARETO DISTRIBUTION
Publish Year: 1398
نوع سند: مقاله کنفرانسی
زبان: English
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
SEE08_284
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 23 آبان 1399
Abstract:
In the seismic hazard assessment, the magnitude of the seismic scenarios is simulated using the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approaches. The magnitude simulation is based on recurrence-magnitude relationship or the Gumbel distribution. In the current study, the appropriate distribution of the magnitude is investigated and the extreme value theory (EVT) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) are identified to produce the magnitude of seismic scenarios. The used seismic catalog of Tehran (radius=100 km) is extracted from the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) database from 1930-2019. In order to remove the temporally and spatiallydependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks) of the catalog, the Gardner and Knopoff (1974) declustering algorithm is applied. The distribution of the magnitude using the Normal distribution, Lognormal distribution, Generalized Extreme value (GEV), Exponential distribution, Inverse Gaussian distribution and the GPD is examined. The negative of log likelihood, the Akaike information criteria (AIC) and the Bayesian information criteria (BIC) are selected to compare the goodness of fitting of the mentioned distributions (Table 1). It is notable that the lowest values in the different distributions show the best fitting. The results of this comparison show that the GPD has the best fitting on the magnitude data.
Authors
Shahin BORZOO
Ph.D. Student, IIEES, Tehran, Iran
Morteza BASTAMI
Associate Professor, IIEES, Tehran, Iran
Afshin FALLAH
Associate Professor, IKIU, Qazvin, Iran