ESTIMATION OF SEISMIC RISK IN TEHRAN METROPOLITAN

In this paper a new methodoology is presented for comprehensive assessme nt of the seismic risk in urban areas. In this method, the seis mic risk is characterized by definition of physic al, human life and socio-economic risk indices. Each of the risk indices are estimated in relative sch eme through weighted combination of its sub indicators. M oreover, new hazard factors are defined to make a better interpretation of risk as a combination of the vulne rability and hazard. The response capacity of each urban zone is also measured by indicators of planning, resource, accessibility and evacuation capacity. The overall relative seismic risk index (RSRi) is then de fined as a function of the three risk indices as w ell as response capacity index. The proposed method is appl ied to assess the risk at 22 municipal districts of Tehran in case of North Tehran Fault Scenario Earthquake. The results show that physical and human life ri sk indices in district 4 of the city are greater than the others. Meanwhile, in socio-economic aspects, district 6 is the highest and district 15 has relatively the maximmum overall risk among others. Finally, compa rison of the results with JICA study is performed to show th e benefits and efficiency of the model.

Keywords:

Seismic Risk Index , Physical Risk , Socio-Economic Risk , Response Capacity , Tehran