اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر میزان ریسک تنش سرما در الگوی کشت پاییزه سیب زمینی (مطالعه موردی : مناطق گرمسیری و نیمه گرمسیری استان کرمان)

This research was carried out to evaluate the effect of climate change on changes in cold stress on potato plants in tropical regions of Kerman province. In this study, changes in the occurrence of cold stress in the observation data of three stations of Jiroft, Kahnouj and Manoajan during the period ۱۹۸۱-۲۰۰۵ and the period ۲۰۱۱-۲۱۰۰ were considered as the future period. The future course data, using of the general circulation model CanESM۲ under rcp۲۶, rcp۴۵ and rcp۸۵scenarios, using were quantified SDSM software.the climatic indices used to evaluate the changes in cold stress in potatoes were determined by the tolerance thresholds of potatoes and based on the average of long-term climate statistics and was evaluated its probability of occurrence during the growth period. In the Jiroft station the probability of occurrence of premature and late temperature below ۵℃ respectively than ۸۳% and ۶۳% decrease. At Kahnoj and Manoajan stations, the probability of occurrence of premature and late temperature below ۵℃ in the future period decreased and increased, respectively.The beginning and the end of the incidence of cold stresses have been set at the beginning and end of the cold season.The statistical results indicate an increasing the days of cold stress (۵≤T≤۰) at the Jiroft station during the periods ۲۰۱۱-۲۰۴۰ and the Manojan Station in the period ۲۰۷۱-۲۱۰۰ compared to the previous period . At the Kahnouj station, decreases the frequency of days with cold stress. However, the days with freezing stress in Jiroft, Kahnoj and Manojan stations in the next climate periods are showing a significant increase.The results indicate that the average date of occurrence of early stages is ۱۰ days earlier and the late stages are ۱۴ days later than the average long-term climate in the study area.

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واژگان کلیدی: تغییر اقلیم , مدل گردش عمومی , ریزمقیاس نمایی , سیب زمینی , کرمان