Brucellosis Trend in West of Iran during the last decade; Applying Joinpoint Regression Model to Detect the Change in Trend of Brucellosis Incidence rate; 2010-2019

Background: Brucellosis is still one of the fundamental issues for public health and theeconomy in many developing countries such as Iran. This study aims to describe theepidemiological features of brucellosis and investigate its trend in Nahavand County inwestern Iran.Material and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted on all confirmed brucellosis cases over the periodbetween 2010 and 2019 in Nahavand County. We use a crude incidence rate per 100,000 persons and carried out a Joinpoint regressionanalysis to describe the brucellosis trend overt the study period. Also, Binary logistic regression was used toestimate the effects of background characteristics and recurrent brucellosis.Results: In total, 1782 cases of brucellosis were reported. The incidence of brucellosisincreased from 27.2 per 100,000 populations in 2010 to 157.45 per 100,000 populations in2019. The mean age of the cases was 37.22 ± 18.01 yr, they were predominantly male thatliving in rural areas. History of contact with an infected animal and consuming unpasteurizeddairy products were observed in 79.30% and 68.73%, respectively. Logistic regression modelusing the forward stepwise method showed that female sex (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.21,95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.54), age ≥55 years (AOR 4.53, 95% CI: 2.18-7.35), usingunpasteurized dairy products (AOR 1.23, 95% CI: 0.94-1.42), and winter season (AOR 1.28,95% CI: 1.06-1.88).Conclusions: Health-related interventions need to empower communities at risk, especiallyyoung men in rural areas. Public health promotion is needed for control of risk factors in theseareas.

Keywords:

Brucellosis , Epidemiology , Recurrence , Trend , Iran