Predicting Modal Shift for Proposed Mass Transit Lines in Karachi

Modelling commuters’ preferences in developing policies for any new public transport mode is essential to analyze the need and feasibility of the proposed mode. The data acquired through preference surveys identify the significance of various attributes related to the mode. The values of attributes affecting the mode choice of commuters can be improved to make the public transport more attractive. This paper analyzes the behavior of university students in their mode selection and their preference towards a proposed bus rapid transit (BRT) line in Karachi, Pakistan. This BRT line, known as Red Line, has a major portion of its route along the University Road. Most of the major higher education institutions of Karachi are located along University Road. A preference survey from the students was conducted to determine individual preferences towards attributes of existing travel modes and proposed BRT. The influencing factors examined in this research include one-way travel time, travel fare and level of comfortduring the travel. The collected data showed that comfort is the most influencing service attribute for private vehicle users and travel time is the most influencing service attribute for public transport and shuttle users. The multinomial logit (MNL) model was applied to estimate the share of student’s trips choosing BRT as a mode of travel. This research shows that the market share of BRT can be significantly increased by reducing the travel time of the service, which shows that travel time has more effect on mode choice in comparison with travel fare.

Keywords:

Mode choice modelling , Bus rapid transit , Multinomial logit model , Preference surveys , Travel mode service attributes