Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment
عنوان مقاله: Residential Mortgage Loans Delinquencies Analysis and Risk Drivers Assessment
شناسه ملی مقاله: JR_IJSE-4-2_003
منتشر شده در شماره 2 دوره 4 فصل در سال 1399
شناسه ملی مقاله: JR_IJSE-4-2_003
منتشر شده در شماره 2 دوره 4 فصل در سال 1399
مشخصات نویسندگان مقاله:
Aivars Spilbergs - Economics and Finance Department, BA School of Business and Finance, Riga, Latvia
خلاصه مقاله:
Aivars Spilbergs - Economics and Finance Department, BA School of Business and Finance, Riga, Latvia
Residential mortgage loans play an important role in improving living conditions in developed countries. In Latvia, however, residential mortgage volumes have declined throughout the post-crisis year’s and were at the end of ۲۰۱۸ ۱۲% below the end ۲۰۰۸ level, while the house price index ca. ۲۵% below pre-crisis level. The main reasons for this are banks credit losses, which resulted in a revision of credit granting standards and a deteriorating in their availability. On the other hand, households have experienced increased uncertainty, both as a result of financial difficulties, experienced during the crisis years and political instability in the post-crisis years. It is therefore essential to identify the true risk drivers and to analyse them. Based on existing researches in other countries, the author has identified several dozen macro-economic indicators, such as the unemployment rate, wage growth, housing price index, etc. and micro factors such as the age of the borrower, total debt to income, loan-to-value, etc., have developed univariate and multivariate econometric models and have examined their statistical stability. Consequently, through a consistent application, it is possible to take sound credit decisions, both in banks and by households, and to contribute to the sustainable development of the housing market.
کلمات کلیدی: Econometric Models; Housing Loans; Risk Drivers Macro Level Risk Drivers; Micro Level Risk Drivers
صفحه اختصاصی مقاله و دریافت فایل کامل: https://civilica.com/doc/1242080/