Investigating Iran Housing Market Cycles and Possible Scenarios in Short-Term and Midterm Horizon Using the System Dynamics

Housing is one of the important sectors of any economy. Given the lack of risk of the value of assets decline and the possibility of great numbers investment, investment in housing is attractive for the majority of Iranians The prices' shock causes problems on the demand side, particularly for vulnerable groups and on the supply side fluctuates investors' market confidence and risk. Under current conditions, also housing market remains in a deep stagnation. The present paper attempts to investigate causes of the problem and the housing market's future status using the dynamic system tools. In this study, after literature review the problem of the cause and effect model of the housing market has been outlined and the important and effective cycles have been specified. Then, using this model rate and accumulation model has been addressed and housing cycles have been specified in the simulation. In presenting scenario, also the status of parameters of Iran macroeconomic and sanctions is investigated. The result of presenting scenario shows that no sharp jump is predicted in housing price in future decade and in most scenarios the price is developed proportional to the inflation or less than it.

Keywords:

System Dynamics , Housing Market , Risk Scenarios