SHUNKICHI KOSAKA - Researcher, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan

The objective of this study is to develop a simulation technique for wide area refuge by reproducing the actual state of past disasters. At first, the basic model of wide area refuge is constructed by the observation of human behavior in the past and the research on the cases of disaster. Moreover, the error in the position of the crowd as the limit .of application of the technique is investigated. Secondly, the model is applied to downtown Tokyo during the Kanto earthquake in ۱۹۲۳. From the results, identifying phenomenon of the behavior of wide area refuge, the timing of beginning refuge and walking speed, which have not been elucidated so far, are quantitatively clarified and a more realistic model of wide area refuge is proposed