O.G. Popova - Institute of Geoecology of the Russian Academy of Sciences
S.U. Kuhmazov - Chief of Department of Open Company "Energytechnology"

The results of long-term seismic monitoring with use of natural sources conducted in the seismic dangerous area of the Caucasus mineral waters are presented. In order to study the subsurface geodynamics and its stress state in the study area, a technique has been developed based on studying energy of converted PS waves. The analysis of obtained data allowed middle-term criteria for predicting local tectonic earthquakes to be formulated proceeding from the model within the scope of the avalanche-unsteady crack formation (AUCF) theory. It has been shown that the catastrophic far earthquakes (distance up to ۷۰۰۰km) with M >۷.۰, after which intense surface waves had been recorded in the area of Caucasus Mineral Waters, changed anisotropic properties and stress state causing the increase of local seismic activity. This shows the induced seismicity. Induced process reduces the reliability of formulated criteria. This reveals the necessity to correct the model of earthquake origin in accordance with the AUCF theory.

Seismic Monitoring, Distant Earthquakes, Environment Stress