The Time-trend of Multiple Sclerosis Incidence and Prevalence in Khuzestan Province, Iran

Background: The prevalence and incidence of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) have increased in Iran. Objectives: This study aimed to observe the temporal trends and provide a predictive model in the prevalence and incidence of MS in Khuzestan Province, Iran. Materials & Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed from ۲۰۰۶ to ۲۰۱۹ in Khuzestan Province, Southwestern Iran, on ۲۶۷۶ patients registered in the Khuzestan Multiple Sclerosis Center. The simple exponential smoothing model was used to study the time trends and predict the prevalence and incidence of MS in ۲۰۲۰. Results: The mean±SD age of the examined patients with MS was ۳۱.۴۰±۸.۹۴ years; while the mean±SD age-incidence of MS was ۲۹.۱۹±۹.۱۶ years. The sex ratio (female to male) was measured as ۳.۰۵. The patients’ prevalence and average annual incidences were ۵۷.۷۷ and ۴.۳۵per ۱۰۰۰۰۰ individuals from ۲۰۰۶ to ۲۰۱۹, respectively. The trend in the MS incidence has been upward with a very slight slope during the years ۲۰۰۶ to ۲۰۱۹. The slope of the increase from ۲۰۰۶ to ۲۰۱۹ was higher for women than men. Conclusion: The collected results suggested that Khuzestan Province is a high-risk area for MS; the prevalence and incidence of the disease are increasing, especially in women. We prognosticate a slight increase in the incidence of MS in the age group of ۲۰ to ۵۰ years. However, the prevalence of the disease in this age group was similar to ۲۰۱۹.

Keywords:

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) , Prevalence , Incidence , Prognosis