Analysis of drought with simple time serie disaggregation models, utilizing short record length

Severity, magnitude and duration are three important attnbutes of drought because they can help with better design and management of water resources systems. Since the historical record is not sufficient for evaluation of these attributes, synthetic hydrology was used to reproduce statistical series similar to historical series. Time series analysis is one of the major methods in synthetic hydrology that can be used for this purpose. The main objective of this study was investigation of drought attributes for two of the reservoirs under construction in Fars province, using the simple time series/disaggregation modeling approach and utilizing streamflow data with short record length.