The impact of agriculture on Urmia Lake by using system dynamics

In the last decades, climate change, population growth, and agricultural development have caused environmental problems in various parts, including Iran. In northwestern Iran, Lake Urmia, the largest inland lake in Iran and the largest saltwater lake in the Middle East, and several species live there. This lake affects the economic, social, and ecological aspects of the northwestern region of Iran. Several studies have been conducted on human impacts on the lake for various reasons, such as successive droughts, improper agricultural development, and improper use of groundwater and surface water resources. Also, studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of various factors on each other and consider their cumulative effect on the lake water level. In this article, using the system dynamics method, we discuss the modeling of the impact of different factors and their combination and their cumulative role in reducing the lake level, and more specifically, about the role of agriculture.

Keywords:

System Dynamic , Lake Urmia , Agriculture water consumption , Modeling , Management policy