The Effects of Oil Consumption and Export on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Iran

Oil is one of the essential factors of growth and development in Iran because it uses the growth model with pressure on natural resources. According to reviews, oil consumption and export are two significant factors in determining economic growth. This study aims to obtain an experimental relationship between these two factors with Iran's GDP. The method to answer this problem is through econometrics analysis of time series data. In this research, the ARDL approach and the Granger causality test have been used to determine the relationship between mentioned factors. The results indicate both long-run and short-run relationships between the mentioned factors during the years ۱۹۸۰ to ۲۰۱۹. The dynamic model shows that oil consumption has a positive effect and oil export has a negative impact on GDP and thus economic growth. There is also a bidirectional causal relationship between oil consumption and economic growth. Therefore, the feedback hypothesis is confirmed. In general, pursuing policies emphasizing crude oil export can negatively impact economic growth and development. Also, increasing the consumption and feedstock of refineries can be considered a positive step towards faster development and economic growth for Iran.

Keywords:

Oil Consumption , Oil Export , Economic Growth , ARDL , Causality.