Modeling Time to Death of Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis at Saint Peter’s Specialized Hospital

Publish Year: 1400
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: English
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:

JR_JRHSU-21-2_007

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 30 مرداد 1401

Abstract:

Background: Currently, the worldwide prevalence and incidence of multidrug-resistanttuberculosis (MDR-TB) is drastically increasing. The main objective of this study was modeling thetime-to-death of patients with MDR-TB at St. Peter’s Specialized Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia,by using various parametric shared frailty models.Study Design: A retrospective study design was used.Methods: The study population was TB patients with MDR at St. Peter’s Specialized Hospital fromJanuary ۲۰۱۶ through December ۲۰۱۹. Exponential, Weibull, and log-normal were used asbaseline hazard functions with the gamma and inverse Gaussian frailty distributions. All the modelswere compared based on Akaike’s Information Criteria.Results: The overall median time to death was ۱۱ months and ۱۲۳ (۳۳.۵%) patients died. Patientswho lived in rural areas had shorter survival time than those who lived in urban areas with anaccelerated factor of ۰.۱۳۵ (P=۰.۰۰۲). Patients with a history of anti-TB drug consumption had ashort survival time than those without such a history with an accelerated factor of ۰.۰۲ (P=۰.۰۰۱).The variability (heterogeneity) of time to death of patients in the region for the selected model(Weibull-inverse Gaussian shared frailty model) was θ=۰.۱۴۴ (P=۰.۰۲۷).Conclusion: The MDR-TB patients with weight gain, khat and alcohol consumption, clinicalcomplication of pneumothorax and pneumonia, extrapulmonary TB, and history of anti-TB drugconsumption as well as those who lived in rural areas had a shorter survival time, compared toothers. There was a significant heterogeneity effect in the St. Peter’s Specialized Hospital. The bestmodel for predicting the time to death of MDR-TB patients was Weibull-inverse Gaussian sharedfrailty model.

Authors

Teramaj Wongel Wotale

MSc, Department of Statistics, College of Natural Science, Mettu University, Mettu, Oromia, Ethiopia

Abiyot Negash Terefe

MSc, Department of Statistics, College of Natural Science, Jimma University, Jimma, Oromia, Ethiopia

Jaleta Abdisa Fufa

MSc, Department of Statistics, College of Natural Science, Jimma University, Jimma, Oromia, Ethiopia