Incidence of Overweight and Its Predictors in Adults after ۱۰ Years of Follow-up: Yazd Healthy Heart Project

Background: Obesity and overweight are important public health problems which are rapidly growing throughout the world. This study aims to provide ۱۰-year incidence estimates of obesity and overweight in adults along with their risk factors in an Iranian adult population. Methods: This cohort study was conducted within the framework of the Yazd Healthy Heart Project (YHHP) throughout phases from ۲۰۰۵-۲۰۰۶ to ۲۰۱۵-۲۰۱۶ among urban adult population. The participants comprised of ۱۰۰۰ males and ۱۰۰۰ females aged ۲۰-۷۴ years from urban areas of Yazd. Cox proportional hazards model was used to examine the potential risk factors for obesity and overweight. Results: A total of ۲۰۰۰ participants aged ۴۷.۰۹ ± ۱۶.۹۷ years and body mass index (BMI) of ۲۱.۹۹ ± ۲.۲۱ kg/m۲ were entered in this study at baseline. After ۱۰ years of follow-up, the cumulative incidence of overweight for the entire population was ۳۸.۶% (۴۱.۶% in women and ۳۶.۸% in men). Furthermore, the ۱۰-year cumulative incidence of obesity was ۱۴.۸% in the population (۲۰.۸% for women and ۱۰.۵% for men). Female participants showed a significantly higher incidence rate compared to males either for obesity or overweight. Regarding risk factors, there was a significant association between non-smoking (HR= ۱.۵۴, ۹۵% CI: ۱.۰۶-۲.۲۵), socio-economic status (HR= ۱.۸۲, ۹۵% CI: ۱.۱۳-۲.۹۴), and education (HR= ۱.۵۶, ۹۵% CI: ۱.۱۴-۲.۱۳) with overweight (P < ۰.۰۵). Conclusion: This study revealed the incidence rate of obesity and overweight is significantly high in adult population of Yazd, Iran especially in women. The most important predictors of overweight seem to be smoking, lower socio-economic status, and education.

Keywords:

Overweight , Obesity , Incidence , Cohort , Risk factors