Strategies for monitoring environmental changes: monitoring and predicting land-use land-cover (LULC) change (Case study: South Pars special economic zone, Iran)

Background and objective: In recent years, the importance of modeling and predicting land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes for regional planning and environmental management has grown significantly. This study aims to discover and predict LULC changes in the South Pars' special economic zone over a ۲۰-year period.Materials and methods:  In this study, geographic information system (GIS) and a remote sensing technique (RS) were used to classify satellite imagery and the land change modeler (LCM) for monitoring LULC changes. The CA-Markov model was also used to predict LULC changes. The input data of our model were satellite images from TM sensor (Thematic Mapper) for ۱۹۹۸, and ۲۰۰۸ and OLI sensor (Operation Land Imager) for ۲۰۱۸, and this led us to predict LULC changes for ۲۰۲۸.Results and conclusion: Monitoring the results indicated that the area of the built-up areas was increased by ۲۱.۲۵۳۳ km۲ (۰.۸۱%) during this period, and the largest reduction area was related to the Bare land with ۱۵,۲۹۸ KM۲ (-۱.۱۷۴%). prediction of LULC changes for ۲۰۲۸ revealed that the area of the Built-up areas is doubled and its area will reach ۴۸.۶۵ KM۲ (۵۶%). Water bodies and bare land areas will decrease by ۱۱۳.۱۳ km۲ (-۱۹%) to ۱۶۵.۹۶ km۲ (-۱۲%) respectively. Vegetation cover will increase to ۲۳.۲۴ km۲ (۶۵%). These results showed that the study area is susceptible to changes due to environmental and human factors that should be considered in urban and environmental planning.

Keywords:

Asaloyeh , Land Use Land Cover , CA-Markov model , Environmental changes , remote sensing