Monetary behavior theory in long-term and turbulent conditions on the Russian Ruble

In this study, based on the monetary behavior theory, which considers the mean and standard deviation of GDP per capita besides the inflation difference between two countries, we first present a model for determining the fair value of the Russian ruble in the long run from ۱۹۹۹ to ۲۰۲۱ based on macroeconomic indicators including inflation, and GDP per capita. And then we modeled the effect of widespread Russian economic sanctions on the value of the Russian ruble during the turbulent days of February ۹ to April ۹. Our research results show that there is not much difference between market value and fair value in the long run. Also, by observing the behavior of the ruble during the turbulent days of February ۲۵, ۲۰۲۲, to April ۲۶, ۲۰۲۲, and by entering the conditional risk factor and weighted average of the ruble, the USD to ruble equality between ۷۶.۲۳ and ۹۱.۶ was evaluated

Keywords:

monetary behavior theory , Inflation , Sanctions , IGARH , GARCH , EGARCH