پیش بینی میانمدت زمینلرزه بر اساس کافهای لرزهای در ایالت لرزه زمینساختی زاگرس

Seismic gaps are one of the most importent precursory phenomenon for intermediateterm earthquake prediction. In this study, based on recorded earthquakes in Zagros seismotectonic province, we have found four background gaps and seven preparation gaps. One of this gaps is related to the earthquake happened, on 31 March 2006 Dorud (Silakhor) region of central Zagros. The strain release curve, the ratio of the earthquake frequency outside the gap to that within it, and cumulative number-time curve, have good correlation with the earthquake happened. In additional, recognition of a preparation gap in Bushehr region, southern Zagros imply that seismic strain is ccumulating there and a large earthquake may occur in that region in future.

Keywords:

Intermediate-term prediction , Background gap , preparation gap , Seismic precursory , Seismicity pattern , Potential earthquake sources