Concentration of PM۲.۵ and Prediction of Total Death Rates of People over ۳۰ Attributed to All Causes of These Matters in Ahvaz, Iran (۲۰۰۸-۲۰۱۷)

Background & Aims: About ۴۰ ۰۰۰ people in Iran annually die due to exposure to a concentration of airborne particulate matter less than PM۲.۵. This study aimed to zone the concentration of particulate matter PM۲.۵ and predict the total number of deaths of people over ۳۰ due to all causes of these particles in Ahvaz during ۲۰۰۸-۲۰۱۷. Materials and Methods: This analytical-descriptive study was based on estimation modeling. The data relating to the concentration of PM۲.۵ during ۲۰۰۸-۲۰۱۷ were obtained from the Environmental Protection Organization of Khuzestan province, and the ۱۰-year mortality data were obtained from the Deputy of Health of Khuzestan province. The normality of data distribution was checked in SPSS by the Kolmogorov-Smirnoff normality test methods. Finally, the central tendency, indices of dispersion, distribution, and relative dispersion were examined as well. For the spatial analysis of PM۲.۵ using ArcGIS ۸.۱۰ through the IDW method, relative to the amount of changes in the PM۲.۵ concentration in Ahvaz in terms of pollution, after normalizing the data, the deaths attributed to PM۲.۵ were estimated by AirQ + . Results: The results showed that the highest and lowest daily PM۲.۵ concentrations during a ten-year period in Ahvaz were ۲۳۴.۱۹ μg/m۳ and ۱۸.۱۵ μg/m۳ in ۲۰۰۹ and ۲۰۱۷, respectively. The comparison of relative risk indices and the number of cases attributed to PM۲.۵ for death from all causes in the basic incidence of ۵۵.۸۰۶ people in the population over ۳۰ demonstrated that the highest and lowest relative risk was ۱.۴۴ in ۲۰۱۰ and ۱.۲۳ in ۲۰۱۴, respectively. Further, the highest and lowest total number of deaths due to all causes attributed to PM۲.۵ were ۱۳۴۴ in ۲۰۱۰ and ۸۱۱ in ۲۰۱۴, respectively. Based on the results of the correlation test between PM۲.۵ and the total mortality of people over ۳۰ for all causes, there was a significant correlation at a ۹۹% confidence level. Conclusion: The results revealed the presence of pollution round the clock and the high impact of PM۲.۵ on public health in Ahvaz. Based on these results, during ten years of the study, ۱۰,۲۰۱ cases corresponding to ۶۴.۲۲% of all deaths from all causes were attributed to PM۲.۵, which is a warning for the public and officials to look at this problem, not as a temporary, but as a pervasive problem that affects every member of the society and stops the process of air pollution by taking effective measures.

Keywords:

Air pollution , PM۲.۵ , Relative risk , AIRQ + , Death , Ahvaz , Iran