Monitoring urban growth and changes in land use and land cover: a strategy for sustainable urban development

KGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Recently, Jos Metropolis, Nigeria is witnessing a strong trend toward urban growth and expansion. This phenomenon has impacted Land Use/Land Cover and efficient management of land. This paper evaluated urban growth and changes in Land Use /Land Cover and examined the land use efficiency of the metropolis. Land Use and Land Cover changes were established from ۱۹۹۹ to ۲۰۲۲; Land consumption rate and population growth rate were determined, and computation of the SDG ۱۱.۳.۱ framework was done to examine the efficiency of land use.METHODS: Data were collected through official documents, the use of remote sensing, and, geographic information systems. Satellite imageries used to determine the classes and changes in Land Use/Land Cover changes were Landsat ۵ TM (۱۹۹۹), Landsat ۷ ETM+ (۲۰۰۴, ۲۰۰۹, and ۲۰۱۴), and Landsat ۸ ETM+ (۲۰۱۸ and ۲۰۲۲). Global positioning system was used for ground-truthing, IDRISI Taiga software was used for image classification, and ArcGIS was used for map visualization. Four classes of Land Use and Land Cover were identified: Built-up, Meadows, Mountain/Vegetation, and Water bodies.FINDINGS: Results revealed that built-up area increased consistently from ۳۴۹۴.۰۰۷ hectares in ۱۹۹۹ to ۱۶۹۹۵.۳۶۰ ha in ۲۰۲۲ leading to a substantial reduction in other land use and land cover. The study confirmed a burgeoning population growth from ۷۸۰,۰۰۰ in ۱۹۹۹ to ۱,۵۶۳,۱۹۳ in ۲۰۲۲. This growth had a significant impact on urban land use management, consuming a large proportion of land from ۳۴۹۴.۰۰۷ hectares to ۱۶۹۹۵.۳۶ hectares in ۱۹۹۹ and ۲۰۲۲ respectively. Results revealed a high land consumption rate of ۰.۰۹۶۲ and ۰.۰۸۸۴ during ۲۰۱۸-۲۰۲۲ and ۱۹۹۹-۲۰۰۴. A high population growth rate (۰.۰۴۱۴) was recorded during ۲۰۱۸-۲۰۲۲. These dynamics intensified the rate of land acquisition for urban development. The average value of the SDG ۱۱.۳.۱ framework was ۲.۳ which is higher than ۱, indicating that urban expansion is moving away from land use efficiency.CONCLUSION: The paper recommended the establishment of a Growth Management Monitoring system by the state government for effective and efficient management of land resources through a spatial plan for the metropolis. This study has provided insight into the dynamics of Jos metropolitan LULC and land use efficiency management which could be useful to policymakers, urban planners, and researchers in initiating sustainable urban development strategies and inclusive structure for its planning and management.

Keywords:

Land consumption rate , Land use and land cover change , Land use efficiency , population growth rate , Sustainable development , Urban growth