Uncertainty and Reliability Analysis of Integrated Water Resources Modeling Based on Probabilistic Input Parameters

Integrated water resources modelling is a management tool to deal with water shortage. Uncertainties in eavery model on the other hand, plays a big role in reliability and accuracy of the obtained results. In this research, this concept is used in a developed conjunctive surface and groundwater model using collected data in a case study. The study area consists of Najafabad plain and its passing Zayandeh-rood river, one of the major aquifers of the semiarid basins in central Iran. Satellite images and GIS technique was also used to simulate the input and calibration parameters. Using the Monte Carlo method as a part of astochastic model, distributed GIS-based hydraulic conductivity was introduced as a normal distribution function to the model, the process during which a reliability analysis for the aquifer`s water levels was also performed. The results illustrated reliability of calculated water levels in each point based on the error encounters from a probabilistic input parameter

Keywords:

Reliability , Uncertainty , Stochastic modeling , integrated management , Conjunctive use