Uzoma Ahiarakwe - Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Columbia
Amil Agarwal - Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Columbia
Yang Chi-Ya - Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Columbia
Zachary C. Pearson - Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Columbia
Miriam Weisberg - Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Columbia oor
Umasuthan Srikuaran - Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Columbia
Matthew Best - Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Columbia

Objectives: As COVID-۱۹ will not be the last pandemic, understanding our historical response allowsus to predict and improve our current practices in preparation for the next pandemic. Following theremoval of the elective surgery suspension at the onset of the COVID-۱۹ pandemic, it is unclear whethersports medicine surgery volume has returned to pre-pandemic levels as well as whether the backlogfrom the original suspension was addressed. The purpose of this study to observe the monthly changesin volume and backlog of knee and shoulder sports surgery one year since the original suspension.Methods: National all-payer data was utilized to identify patients undergoing knee and shoulder sports proceduresfrom January ۲۰۱۷ to April ۲۰۲۱. Descriptive analysis was utilized to report the monthly changes in surgeries. Alinear forecast analysis using historical data was utilized to determine the expected volume. This was compared tothe observed case volume. The difference in expected and observed volume was utilized to calculate the estimatedchange in backlog.Results: From March to May ۲۰۲۰, there was a persistent decrease in the observed shoulder and knee sportsvolume when compared to the expected volume. By June ۲۰۲۰, all knee and shoulder sports volume reached theexpected volume. By April ۲۰۲۱, the estimated backlog for shoulder and knee procedures had increased by ۴۹.۸%(۲۶,۴۱۲ total cases) and ۱۹.۰% (۲۶,۴۱۲ total cases), respectively, with respect to the original calculated backlogfrom March to May ۲۰۲۰.Conclusion: Within four months, the sudden decrease in volume for knee and shoulder sports procedures hadreturned to pre-pandemic levels; however, the original backlog in cases has continually increased one year followingthe suspension. Additionally, the backlog is significantly higher for knee when compared to shoulder surgeries. Level of evidence: IV

COVID-۱۹, Knee Surgery, Shoulder surgery, Sports Medicine, Surgical Volume