Rainfall-Runoff Modeling and Analysis under CMIP۶ Scenariosby ANFIS; Case Study: Zayandehrud River
عنوان مقاله: Rainfall-Runoff Modeling and Analysis under CMIP۶ Scenariosby ANFIS; Case Study: Zayandehrud River
شناسه ملی مقاله: ICCE13_543
منتشر شده در سیزدهمین کنگره بین المللی مهندسی عمران در سال 1402
شناسه ملی مقاله: ICCE13_543
منتشر شده در سیزدهمین کنگره بین المللی مهندسی عمران در سال 1402
مشخصات نویسندگان مقاله:
Farzan Bahmani - Master Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology (IUT),Isfahan, Iran
Mohammad Hossein Golmohammadi - Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology(IUT), Isfahan, Iran
Hamid Reza Safavi - Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology (IUT), Isfahan,Iran
خلاصه مقاله:
Farzan Bahmani - Master Student, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology (IUT),Isfahan, Iran
Mohammad Hossein Golmohammadi - Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology(IUT), Isfahan, Iran
Hamid Reza Safavi - Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology (IUT), Isfahan,Iran
Over the past decades, hydrological modeling has become an essential tool in water resources management.Among various types of models, Data-driven modeling has gained more attention since they require fewerdata and are relatively easy to implement and understand. This study utilizes an ANFIS model to simulatenatural upstream runoff in the Zayandehrud basin. The ANFIS models with precipitation and temperatureas inputs are trained and tested on the Chelgard-Gale Shahrokh sub-basin. The results in both the train andtest sections highlight the importance and strength of ANFIS systems in process of modeling complexhydrological systems. Furthermore, for future projection, downscaled and bias-corrected precipitation andtemperature data of CMIP۶ scenarios are used as inputs to calculate runoff projections in three mainimportant scenarios of CMIP۶ named SSP۱۲۶, SSP۲۴۵, and SSP۵۸۵. The results of projections of SSPscenarios indicate an increase in temperature in winter seasons which diminishes precipitations in snowfallform and increases rainfall precipitation. Moreover, runoff peaks might shift to winter months instead ofspring and the number of flash floods and their intensity may increase due to increased rainfall precipitation.
کلمات کلیدی: ANFIS, Climate Change, CMIP۶, Data-driven, rainfall-runoff modeling
صفحه اختصاصی مقاله و دریافت فایل کامل: https://civilica.com/doc/1853202/