Cedric Okinda - Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China.
Dominic Samoita - Moi University, Kenya.
Charles Nzila - Moi University, Kenya.

The global electricity demand is rapidly growing due to population increase and industrialization. However, the reliance on fossil fuels and other non-renewable energy resources has resulted in climate change and other unsustainability-related issues. This study aims to determine the significant penetration levels of Solar PV on system operations and production costs based on the current year (business as usual scenario) and the accelerated Solar PV scenario (hypothetical future) in the Kenyan electricity generation system. A one-year dynamic analysis based on an hourly time step energy demand was performed using the Energy PLAN simulation tool. The current peak demand for electricity in Kenya was established to be ۲,۰۵۶.۶۷ MW with an installed capacity of ۳,۰۷۴.۳۴ MW with a ۲.۴۷% contribution by Solar PV while the curtailed energy was ۲۸۵.۵۱ GWh. The simulation results showed that large-scale installations of Solar PV can decrease CO₂-equivalent emissions from ۰.۱۳۴ Mt to ۰.۰۲۱ Mt. Both scenarios are presented in terms of their ability to avoid excess electricity production regarding system operations and production costs. Increasing the share of Solar PV in electricity generation is possible by as much as ۳۹.۵۶% (technical) and ۳۰.۵۴% (market economic) simulation. Additionally, the Solar PV electricity produced increased to ۱۹.۷۶ TWh/year from ۱۱.۹۰ TWh/year. Furthermore, the Market Economic Simulation showed that the total investment annual cost for Solar PV in the hypothetical future was low at ۱۰ mEUR/Year. Therefore, large-scale installation of Solar PV in Kenya's energy system is feasible and economically viable based on technical analysis and economic analysis.

Solar PV, EnergyPLAN, Renewable Energy Sources, Technical Simulation, Market Economic Simulation