An Estimation of Drug-Related Deaths in Iran, Using the Capture-Recapture Method (۲۰۱۴-۲۰۱۶)

Background: The Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME) and the Legal Medicine Organization(LMO) are the ۲ death registration systems in Iran for registering drug-related deaths. The aim of the presentstudy was to assess the number of undercount and the overlap between the deaths registered by the ۲ sources.Methods: In this descriptive study, according to the ۱۰th revision of the International Classification ofDiseases (ICD-۱۰), the registered data on drug-related deaths in the years ۲۰۱۴-۲۰۱۶, as recorded by theMOHME and the LMO, were collected and the number of deaths was estimated using ۲-source capturerecapture method and Excel and SPSS software.Findings: The total number of drug-related deaths, as registered by the ۲ sources, was ۸۶۳۹ during the۳ years. A major part of the drug-related deaths (۷۵% of the data) had been registered by the LMO and only۲۵% of deaths had been registered by the MOHME. There was also a small overlap (۷.۷% of deaths) betweenthe data from the ۲ sources. The final estimation from the capture-recapture model and analysis of sensitivityshowed that, during the ۳ years, the total number of drug-related deaths was ۱۴۵۱۷ [۹۵% confidence interval(CI):۱۴۴۹۸-۱۴۵۵۸]. Based on the complete overlap assumption and ۵۰% of unidentified individuals in the۲ sources, the number of deaths was estimated at ۱۱۳۴۱ and ۱۲۴۱۸, respectively. The largest number ofdrug-related deaths had occurred within the age range of ۲۵-۳۹ years and in men. Kermanshah, Hamedan,and Zanjan Provinces (Iran) had the largest number of cumulative incidences of drug-related deaths. Basedon the data provided by the MOHME, the most common cause of death was Methadone poisoning.Conclusion: There was a small overlap between the MOHME and the LMO in the registration of drug-relateddeaths. Failure to enter accurate and correct information has led to miscalculations of these deaths in Iran

Keywords:

Death , Substance-related disorders , Iran