Hamid Sharifi - HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Yunes Jahani - Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Ali Mirzazadeh - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
Milad Ahmadi Gohari - Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Mehran Nakhaeizadeh - Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Mostafa Shokoohi - HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Sana Eybpoosh - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Centre for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, Iran
Hamid Reza Tohidinik - HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Ehsan Mostafavi - Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Research Centre for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases, Pasteur Institute of Iran, Tehran, Iran
Davood Khalili - Prevention of Metabolic Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Seyed Saeed Hashemi Nazari - Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease Research Center, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
Mohammad Karamouzian - HIV/STI Surveillance Research Center, and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran
Ali Akbar Haghdoost - Modeling in Health Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran

BackgroundIran is one of the first few countries that was hit hard with the coronavirus disease ۲۰۱۹ (COVID-۱۹) pandemic. We aimed to estimate the total number of COVID-۱۹ related infections, deaths, and hospitalizations in Iran under different physical distancing and isolation scenarios.MethodsWe developed a susceptible-exposed-infected/infectious-recovered/removed (SEIR) model, parameterized to the COVID-۱۹ pandemic in Iran. We used the model to quantify the magnitude of the outbreak in Iran and assess the effectiveness of isolation and physical distancing under five different scenarios (A: ۰% isolation, through E: ۴۰% isolation of all infected cases). We used Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate the ۹۵% uncertainty intervals (UIs). ResultsUnder scenario A, we estimated ۵ ۱۹۶ ۰۰۰ (UI ۱ ۷۵۳ ۰۰۰-۱۰ ۲۲۰ ۰۰۰) infections to happen till mid-June with ۹۶۶ ۰۰۰ (UI ۴۶۷ ۸۰۰-۱ ۷۰۲ ۰۰۰) hospitalizations and ۱۱۱ ۰۰۰ (UI ۵۳ ۴۰۰-۲۰۰ ۰۰۰) deaths. Successful implantation of scenario E would reduce the number of infections by ۹۰% (ie, ۵۵۰ ۰۰۰) and change the epidemic peak from ۶۶ ۰۰۰ on June ۹, to ۹۴۰۰ on March ۱, ۲۰۲۰. Scenario E also reduces the hospitalizations by ۹۲% (ie, ۷۴ ۵۰۰), and deaths by ۹۳% (ie, ۷۸۰۰).ConclusionWith no approved vaccination or therapy available, we found physical distancing and isolation that include public awareness and case-finding and isolation of ۴۰% of infected people could reduce the burden of COVID-۱۹ in Iran by ۹۰% by mid-June.

COVID-۱۹, Modeling, Physical Distancing, Isolation, Iran