Identifying and Quantifying the Key Causes of Air Pollution in Tehran

Air pollution in Tehran remains a significant environmental and public health issue, with various sources contributing to its severity. While numerous studies have highlighted potential causes, there remains a lack of clear quantification of the specific impacts and proportions of each source. To address this gap, we propose a comprehensive method for identifying and quantifying the key drivers of air pollution in Tehran. We begin by using a Cause-and-Effect diagram to classify the primary pollution sources, followed by a quantitative analysis to assess the contribution of each factor to the overall problem. A novel procedure is introduced to allocate relative weights to these sources, based on the type and intensity of their impacts, providing a more accurate estimation of each source's proportional influence. Expert opinions and a causal loop diagram, rooted in system dynamics, are employed to further refine the analysis. Additionally, a new matrix multiplication-based approach is developed to identify the most influential factors, which is then compared with the existing DEMATEL method. Results from a case study in Tehran indicate that the proposed method outperforms DEMATEL and Cognitive Map approaches, offering more reliable insights into the major contributors to air pollution. These findings are crucial for policymakers aiming to design effective air quality management strategies and implement targeted interventions in metropolitan areas similar to Tehran.

Keywords:

Air Pollution , Causal Loop Diagram , DEMATEL Technique , System Dynamics