Examining the role of coefficients of oil supply shocks, demand shocks, and delays on exchange rate fluctuations

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on the exchange rate fluctuations of selected Persian Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran, from ۲۰۰۰ to ۲۰۲۳ using the structural autoregression (SVAR) model. The findings of this research showed that the coefficients of oil supply shocks are significant only in Saudi Arabia and are no longer statistically significant in the other three countries. Coefficients of delays are statistically significant only for the country of Saudi Arabia in the first Intermission. Furthermore, regarding the coefficients of total demand shocks on exchange rate fluctuations of these countries, it does not have a significant impact on any of the countries. The results regarding the interruptions of the demand shock also indicate that statistically only the first interruption is significant for Kuwait. In addition, the impact of specific oil demand shocks on exchange rate fluctuations is significant for Kuwait. Therefore, it can be said that no strong, stable, or long-term effects of the structural shocks of oil supply and demand were found in the currencies of these countries.

Keywords:

supply and demand shock , Oil Price , Exchange Rate , Persian Gulf countries