Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Zanjan Province, Iran: Implications for Future Management

A comprehensive analysis of CRU TS and Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) data reveals an escalating threat of water scarcity in Zanjan Province, a semi-arid region critical to Iran’s agricultural sector. From ۱۹۸۰ to ۲۰۲۰, temperatures rose by ۱.۴۸°C, while precipitation declined by ۵۸ mm. The IPCC’s RCP۴.۵ scenario projects a further temperature increase of ۱.۸°C and an ۸% reduction in precipitation by ۲۰۵۰. An innovative runoff model, calibrated using GIS-based snowmelt mapping and Zanjanrud River station data, estimates a ۱۳-۱۸% reduction in runoff. Given that approximately ۸۵% of water is consumed by agriculture, proposed strategies include a ۲۵% expansion of Taham Dam capacity, ۵۰% adoption of drip irrigation, and implementation of Iran’s Sixth Development Plan, requiring a $۲۵-۳۰ million budget and farmer training. This study enhances the framework for sustainable water management in Iran’s arid regions.

Keywords:

Climate change , water resources , Zanjan Province , runoff modeling , Taham Dam