Ali Dehghan Harati - Agricultural Economics Department of Shahid Bahonar University M.C.s studentKerman, Iran
Hosein Mehrabi Boshr Abadi - Agricultural Economics Department of Shahid Bahonar University Professor Kerman, Iran

The present article analyzed the effect of risk drought on total factor productivity of wheat production in Iran during 2000-2009. For this purpose, hydrology indicator as well as both econometric and Mont Carlo simulation were used. First provinces were divided by Domarton method in arid, semi-arid and meditation stratifies. Then econometric model was estimated for each stratifies in panel data formation. Results indicated that productivity had the most hazard in arid stratify. Simulation results showed hydrology indicator had gradual effect on productivity fall. As arid stratify had the most damage on 2003. It was happened for meditation and semi-arid stratifies in 2004 and 2007 respectively. So, development regional programming based on intensity of damage will make better outcomes

Domarton stratify, drought risk, hydrology indicator, Mont Carlo simulation