Iran Earthquakes Modeling With Mix Pattern of Markov Chain and Coefficient of Variations (MC-CV)

In recent years many efforts for modeling earthquake in Iran and the world based on statistical models is performed. One of these models is the Markov chain. In this study, this model for destructive earthquake of IRAN with magnitude over 6 Richter from 1909 to 2004 AD in Zagros , Alborz and Loot plain (earthquake-prone areas of Iran) is used. For these areas transfer matrix of Markov chain is extracted, then with using the relations of the Markov chain, the probability of transmission at the next time step (earthquake occurrence on any of the areas) are obtained. Then for area with more probability by use an appropriate distribution statistically which obtained from the method of coefficient of variations, probability time of earthquakes occurrence with magnitude more than 6 and 7 richter is calculated

Keywords:

Markov chain , coefficient of variations , probability transitions matrix , earthquake occurrence