Applying Semi-Markov Models for forecasting the Triple Dimensions of Next Earthquake Occurrences: with Case Study in Iran Area
Publish place: International Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Research، Vol: 19، Issue: 4
Publish Year: 1387
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: English
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شناسه ملی سند علمی:
JR_IJIEPR-19-4_007
تاریخ نمایه سازی: 7 شهریور 1393
Abstract:
In this paper Semi-Markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. Semi-Markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. In Semi-Markov models each zone can be considered as a state of proposed Semi-Markov model. At first proposed Semi-Markov model is explained to forecast the three mentioned dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Next, a zoning method is introduced and several algorithms for the validation of the proposed method are also described to obtain the errors of this method.
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Authors
Ramin Sadeghian
Department of Engineering Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
Gholam Reza Jalali-Naini
Department of Industrial Engineering, iust, Tehran, Iran
Jafar Sadjadi
Department of Industrial Engineering, iust, Tehran, Iran
Najmeh Hamidi Fard
Department of Foreign Languages, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran