Applying Semi-Markov Models for forecasting the Triple Dimensions of Next Earthquake Occurrences: with Case Study in Iran Area

Publish Year: 1387
نوع سند: مقاله ژورنالی
زبان: English
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JR_IJIEPR-19-4_007

تاریخ نمایه سازی: 7 شهریور 1393

Abstract:

In this paper Semi-Markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. Semi-Markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. In Semi-Markov models each zone can be considered as a state of proposed Semi-Markov model. At first proposed Semi-Markov model is explained to forecast the three mentioned dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Next, a zoning method is introduced and several algorithms for the validation of the proposed method are also described to obtain the errors of this method.

Authors

Ramin Sadeghian

Department of Engineering Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

Gholam Reza Jalali-Naini

Department of Industrial Engineering, iust, Tehran, Iran

Jafar Sadjadi

Department of Industrial Engineering, iust, Tehran, Iran

Najmeh Hamidi Fard

Department of Foreign Languages, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran