Ramin Sadeghian - Department of Engineering Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran
Gholam Reza Jalali-Naini - Department of Industrial Engineering, iust, Tehran, Iran
Jafar Sadjadi - Department of Industrial Engineering, iust, Tehran, Iran
Najmeh Hamidi Fard - Department of Foreign Languages, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

In this paper Semi-Markov models are used to forecast the triple dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Each earthquake can be investigated in three dimensions including temporal, spatial and magnitude. Semi-Markov models can be used for earthquake forecasting in each arbitrary area and each area can be divided into several zones. In Semi-Markov models each zone can be considered as a state of proposed Semi-Markov model. At first proposed Semi-Markov model is explained to forecast the three mentioned dimensions of next earthquake occurrences. Next, a zoning method is introduced and several algorithms for the validation of the proposed method are also described to obtain the errors of this method.

Semi-Markov Model, Probabilistic Forecasting Matrix, Forecasting Error, Karakaisis zoning