Assessment of Applying Chaos Theory for Daily TrafficEstimation

Road traffic volumes in intercity roads are generally estimated by probability functions, statisticaltechniques or meta-heuristic approaches such as artificial neural networks. As the road trafficvolumes depend on input variables and mainly road geometrical design, weather conditions, dayor night time, weekend or national holidays and so on, these are also estimated by pattern recognitiontechniques. The main purpose of this research work is to check the using chaotic pattern ofdaily traffic volume and the performance of chaos theory for estimating daily traffic. In this paper,the existing chaotic behavior in daily traffic volume in intercity roads has been examined and alsothe performance of chaos theory is discussed and compared to probability functions. The ratiobetween the minimum and maximum of daily traffic volume is defined as chaos factor, and data,gathered through installed automatic traffic counters over one year, have been used in analyticalprocess. Results revealed that daily traffic volumes have chaotic behavior with defined twenty-fourhour time span. They also show that the application of chaos theory is better than uniform distributionfunction, while weaker than normal distribution function for estimating daily traffic volume

Keywords:

Chaos theory , traffic volume estimation , probability function , pattern recognition techniques